Wishful thinking

Question: What would you think if you saw a poll today about an election 1 year ago from now?

Answer: Probably not as much as the folks over at RedState.org. I present to you yet another version of Republican wishful thinking, accompanied by despair, perhaps remembering the hope they must have held around this time last year when it was feared that Jersey would fall to Bush:

Good news from the New Jersey front!
A new poll has been released that unfortunately shows Doug Forrester being beat by 48% - 39%, which is relatively a high margin compared to other polls. Then there is good news, from this sample, it was found that the Republican contender who is expected to win the nomination wins versus 2 out of 3 possible Democrat candidates.

Dick Codey, our acting Governor has the best shot says the poll. He tried to run for re-election, but the Democrat establishment did not want him to. So, you think they will let this relatively moderate non-establishment acting Governor run for Senate? Probably not. This is good news, in a sample that has Doug Forrester down, Kean is up 9% against the guy who word on the street says will get the nomination, Bob Menedez, the second most influential Democrat in Congress.

Tom Kean, Jr.
41%

Richard Codey
45%
==
Tom Kean, Jr.
44%

Rob Andrews
36%
==
Tom Kean, Jr.
43%

Bob Menendez
34%

First off, WTF? They tend to miss the point entirely that this poll is asking about an election a year from now, IF Senator Corzine wins (ok he probably will). Either way, Corzine picks his successor there is no election (something the redstate.orgers seemed to have forgotten to mention). They make it seem like they will have one more seat in the Senate like yesterday.

It gets worse, the red staters source PoliticsNJ for their poll. This is the link. They don't provide the link directly, I had to dig for it. Kudos to PoliticsNJ for doing a pisspoor job of presenting poll data. "Wall Street Journal/ Zogby" does not automatically equate Senate '06 race to me. Plus no MOE?

I would have sourced a more easy to follow, more complete, I dunno original like the WSJ itself? I would have also told my readers to click on Senate Races and then on NJ.

In any case, making any types of what if predictions for 2006 that are contingent upon what happens somewhere in some statehouse is a pipe-dream wrapped up in delusion, swirling in fantasy.

PSST Redstate.org, JERSEY IS BLUE!